The official immigration data is now confirmed, clarifying the "ammunition" available for the 2025-26 state nomination battle. A comparison of data from the past three years reveals exactly why this year's competition is so intense.

1. The Big Picture: From Expansion to Contraction

Looking at the total quota changes over three years:

2023-24 FY: Total Quota 16,700

2024-25 FY: Total Quota 26,260 (Peak year, surged by nearly 10,000!)

2025-26 FY: Total Quota 20,350 (Sharp decline, decreased by 5,910 from last year)

Conclusion: After a brief policy "bonus period," this financial year sees a comprehensive tightening of quotas, a return to rationality, and maximized competition intensity.

2. The Separate Fates of 190 and 491 Visas

190 Visa:

2023-24: 10,300 → 2024-25: 16,500 (Peak) → 2025-26: 12,850

This year sees 3,650 fewer than last year but still shows growth compared to two years ago. It remains the main pathway

491 Visa:

2023-24: 6,400 → 2024-25: 9,760 (Peak) → 2025-26: 7,500

This year sees 2,260 fewer than last year, indicating a significantly narrowed 491 pathway.

3. Changes Across States: Who's Rising, Who's Receding?

Focusing on the dual changes for the 2025-26 FY compared to both 2023-24 and 2024-25:

190 Visa - Interstate Map Redrawn

Queensland (QLD) - The Absolute Leader:

vs. Two Years Ago (900): +950! More than doubled.

vs. Last Year (600): +1250! Epic increase – must be a key focus.

Northern Territory (NT) - Steady Progress:

vs. Two Years Ago (250): +600, continuing to benefit.

vs. Last Year (800): +50, stable with slight growth.

Victoria (VIC) - The Stabilizing Force:

Quota (2,700) is identical to two years ago, reflecting its solid foundation.

vs. Last Year (3,000): Decreased by only 300, the most stable among all major states.

The "Halved" Group:

South Australia (SA): Plummetted from last year's 3,000 to 1,350. Although still higher than two years ago, the bonus period is over.

Western Australia (WA): Reduced from last year's 3,000 to 2,000. Thresholds will inevitably rise significantly.

New South Wales (NSW) / Tasmania (TAS): Also significantly reduced by 900 compared to last year.

491 Visa - Dramatic Shift

Victoria (VIC) is the most volatile: from 600 two years ago, to 2,000 last year, then plummeting to 700 this year. Policy focus has completely shifted to 190.

Queensland (QLD) is a double winner: The 491 quota (750) has increased compared to both two years ago and last year.

Western Australia (WA) and New South Wales (NSW) have seen their 491 quotas severely cut compared to last year, meaning reduced opportunities.

Action Guide & Summary

View QLD Rationally: It's true QLD has more quotas, but "work" is the mandatory ticket to the visa. Avoid moving blindly; thoroughly research the requirements of its work streams.

Hold Steady in Traditional States: For hot occupations like Early Childhood Education and healthcare, stable-quota states like Victoria remain reliable choices.

Abandon Illusions: Severe quota contractions in states like SA and WA mean selection criteria will be extremely strict. Last year's perspective no longer applies.

Broaden Your Approach: With narrower state nomination pathways, applicants for non-hot occupations on the "Long-term List" need to seriously consider striving for high points for the 189 visa or planning an employer-sponsored pathway.