The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept interest rates on hold at 3.85%, dashing hopes of relief for mortgage holders as house prices soar to record highs and loan defaults spike in key suburbs.
Inflation "stubborn": While headline CPI dropped to 2.1% (May 2025), core inflation remains at 2.4%—still above RBA’s 2-3% target.
Global uncertainty: Trade tensions and weak demand weigh on the outlook.
6-3 vote to hold rates, signaling caution despite economic strain.
�� RBA Statement:
"With rates already down 50bps since late 2024, we need more data to confirm inflation is sustainably returning to target."
State | Suburb | Mortgage Delinquency Rate |
VIC | Craigieburn | 3.10% (highest in Australia) |
VIC | Caroline Springs | 2.8% |
NSW | Blacktown | 2.5% |
NSW | Liverpool | 2.3% |
Why?
Young families in outer suburbs face high debt-to-income ratios.
WA improves (0.86% delinquency) as mining rebound lifts home values.
VIC (1.17%) and NSW (1.07%) worst-performing states.
CoreLogic: "We may be near the peak of mortgage stress."
No rate cuts until 2026? Economists split on RBA’s next move.
House prices keep rising: Low supply offsets high rates.
Renters squeezed too: Vacancy rates at record lows.
⚠️ Warning: If unemployment rises, delinquencies could surge again.